Vietnam’s initial success in cement capacity growth was driven by strong clinker exports, particularly to China, which absorbed much of the domestic surplus. However, this export-led growth has been significantly undermined by the decline in exports to China. Vietnam’s clinker exports to China have been hit hard in 2022, falling from 21.91 million tonnes in 2021 to just 3.2 million tonnes as China cut imports, essentially eliminating 22 million tonnes due to construction crunch issues. This sharp decline has left Vietnam struggling with oversupply, forcing many producers to cut back, delay or temporarily halt production of some lines. The decline in exports has brought Vietnam’s clinker export volumes back to pre-2015 lows, but at low, even below-cost, prices. This highlights the vulnerability of being too dependent on a single export market.
Recently, some major export markets such as the Philippines, Taiwan, etc. have launched anti-dumping investigations and imposed tariffs on some Vietnamese cement products, making exports even more difficult.
Vietnam Cement Prospects
Looking ahead, Vietnam’s cement industry faces a challenging road to recovery. The Ministry of Construction has recommended boosting public investment and accelerating infrastructure projects, along with addressing ongoing issues in the real estate market. In addition, the Ministry of Construction has proposed greater use of reinforced concrete viaducts in highway projects to help absorb the current cement inventories.
Some growth in consumption is expected in 2025, with cement consumption projected to increase modestly by 4.5% to 57.18 million tonnes, reflecting early signs of recovery as infrastructure investments begin to take effect. However, the cement market may not grow significantly until 2026, when domestic cement consumption is expected to grow 10.2% to 65.86 million tonnes.
To grow sustainably, industry leaders and regulators are calling for government policies that encourage investment in advanced, energy-efficient building materials, in line with greening and emission reduction goals. As Vietnam navigates these complex challenges, how to balance domestic and export market stability will be crucial to the long-term recovery of the cement industry.
Source: Collected
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